Dr Brett Stevenson, Co-convenor, A Better Eurobodalla - 14 October 2025
Dr Brett Stevenson, Co-convenor, A Better Eurobodalla, presented to Council at the Public Access Session on 14 October 2025.
Good Morning Councillors. This morning I want to address Council regarding coastal vulnerability and climate change in the Eurobodalla, with particular reference to the Batemans Bay Master Plan (BBMP).
I am presenting as Co-Convenor of A Better Eurobodalla (ABE), a community forum dedicated to having effective and open governance in our region. This topic is also relevant to my own tertiary qualifications, consisting of B.Sc. First Class Honours in physical geography and a Ph.D. in coastal processes. I have a long term interest in the Eurobodalla coast, having camped for 11 days at the back of Bengello Beach 50 years ago to collect beach profile data for my honours project.
September 2025 was a significant period for Australian climate change policy and governance, with the release of Australia's National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), a landmark report that comprehensively details how climate change will affect Australia's health, infrastructure, economy, and environment. It identifies 63 national climate risks, with a focus on 11 priority areas, and warns of increasing hazards including extreme storms, heatwaves, and sea-level rise, which lead to significant economic costs and impacts on communities and ecosystems. Key findings and risks are :
- Economic and financial impacts:
The NCRA projects a substantial increase in the cost of disasters, potentially reaching over $40 billion annually by 2050. Property values are also at risk, with one study estimating a half-trillion dollar hit by 2090.
- Health and social impacts:
The report warns of a significant rise in heat-related deaths, particularly in densely populated areas.
- Infrastructure and coastal impacts:
Millions of Australians are at risk from coastal erosion and sea-level rise, with projections showing a 400% increase in coastal flooding days in some areas by 2090.
- Natural environment and food systems:
Risks to the natural environment and food systems are expected to increase from high to very high by 2050.
- Cascading and compounding risks:
The report emphasizes that climate change impacts will be interconnected, compounding each other and occurring simultaneously across different systems.
In the context of Eurobodalla policy and governance, the NCRA identifies 10 priority hazards, including 4 directly applicable to Batemans Bay. These four are:
1) Coastal erosion and shoreline change,
2) Coastal and estuarine flooding
3) Riverine and flash flooding, and
4) Bushfires.
In the case of Batemans Bay, it is notable that 3 of these priority hazards can interact and trigger the cascading and compounding effects highlighted in the NCRA. Batemans Bay is a low lying swampy area on an exposed coastal site located at the mouth of the Clyde River, a major riverine system with a documented flood history. It is exposed to hazards of both coastal inundation from oceanic storm surge and sea level rise, as well as riverine flooding, together with coastal erosion and shoreline change. These impacts can occur simultaneously, increasing the magnitude of the resultant inundation at Batemans Bay.
The NCRA identifies major urban centres and cities across coastal areas as primary hotspots for risks from sea level rise. The following quote from the NCRA is particularly relevant to the draft Batemans Bay Master Plan: “Exposure is increased in coastal areas that have high population density, residential buildings in close proximity to soft shorelines, and erosion due to higher sea levels and shoreline characteristics.” This quote mirrors what is proposed in the Batemans Bay Master Plan, with multiple high-rise residential buildings up to 100m high containing an additional 8,000 dwellings being constructed on a low lying coastal area already experiencing coastal erosion and retreat.
Looking to the future, peer-reviewed research by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO all indicate that sea level rise will accelerate during the projected time horizon of the BBMP through to 2100, and that storm flooding events will intensify in magnitude and duration (as evidenced by recent floods in Taree, Lismore and Port Macquarie).
The NCRA also indicates that present-day extremes and flood events will become increasingly frequent, and eventually chronic, under the sea-level rise increments considered for the 21st century. For example, an additional 0.14 m sea-level rise will result in an eight-fold increase in frequency of sea-level extremes on average. Under 0.32 m sea-level rise, this becomes an average 118-fold increase, and a more-than-200-fold increase under 0.54 m sea level rise. This means a typical 1-in-100-year event becomes an annual occurrence at most locations with only 0.32 m additional sea-level rise. This result has huge implications for the current Eurobodalla Coastal Hazard Code, which utilises a 1 in 100 year event as a key yardstick for many of its assessments – the term is mentioned 34 times in this 14 page document. The NCRA indicates that our current tools significantly underestimate the likelihood of future flooding impacts, engendering a false sense of security.
The current serious coastal erosion problems already occurring at Caseys Beach (just a few kilometres from the BBMP site) and Surfside underscore the intractable and financially expensive nature of the “wicked problem” created when urban development is located on an unsuitable and vulnerable site. If it were implemented, the long term costs of the draft BBMP would make the cost of coastal protection works at Surfside look minuscule. These costs would be borne by Eurobodalla ratepayers and NSW taxpayers.
Vulnerability impacts are not limited to direct physical impacts. For example, the NCRA notes that many insurance policies exclude coverage for ‘actions of the sea’, creating financial challenges for affected residents and businesses, particularly those with high-value properties. Home insurance often inadequately addresses these risks, and while some insurers are starting to incorporate climate risk assessments when providing insurance, coverage remains limited and can vary widely, as well as being unaffordable for many people, particularly in LGAs of below average income such as Eurobodalla Shire.
In view of the significant risks and hazards highlighted by the NCRA, ABE considers that the deficiencies in the draft BBMP are of a scale and nature that cannot be resolved at subsequent individual project management or Development Application stages of planning. The shortcomings need to be addressed now in an integrated manner via best practice strategic planning, including incorporation of community engagement from the outset. They cannot be “kicked down the road” for later consideration.
ABE therefore urges Council to suspend work on the BBMP until the full implications of the NCRA have been examined and assessed. It would be useful for Council to arrange for Australian Climate Services staff to provide an NCRA briefing for Councillors and interested ratepayers. This could be done via video conferencing to encourage wider participation. Such a briefing would assist Councillors, Council staff, ratepayers and taxpayers to be fully informed of the risks, hazards and cost implications for the proposed urban redevelopment in Batemans Bay.
Thank you for your attention
Dr Brett Stevenson
Co-Convenor,
A Better Eurobodalla -14/10/2025